Modeling Extreme Rainfall Events in the Tropical Monsoon Region: A Generalized Pareto Distribution Approach

Extreme weather events have become more frequent due to climate change, and extreme rainfall is a common occurrence in the tropical monsoon areas. Makassar City was chosen as representative area of ​​the climate. The objective this research utilize generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), along with its nested model (exponential), predict monthly return levels designated geographical region. study utilized daily precipitation data from January 1980 December 2022. To determine that exceeds certain threshold, peaks over threshold (POT) method applied. result discovered exponential most appropriate for series months, except February July, where GPD appropriate. No trends or seasonal patterns were identified any months. calculated each month at 2, 3, 5, 10-year periods indicate has highest level all selected compared other months following closely behind. These findings are expected assist government developing flood prevention strategies mitigating their effects, particularly during rainy seasons peak city, which February.